After months of enthralling football action and a postseason filled with incredible games, we've finally made it to the Super Bowl.
The Los Angeles Rams will face the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta. One team is looking to further cement its legacy as the greatest dynasty in football history, and the other hoping to reach the pinnacle of football behind a wunderkind coach and one of the most impressive rebuilds in recent memory.
But it's not just a compelling contest as a football fan — it's also the greatest gambling day of the year.
The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook has released over 400 prop bets for the Super Bowl, ranging from the expected to the absurd. Below we'll go through the 31 best wagers for the Super Bowl to send you home a winner.
The pick: Tails ($102 to win $100)
The logic: Never fails.
The pick: Los Angeles Rams record the first penalty of the game ($150 to win $100)
The logic: Three things in play here. First, this is the first Super Bowl for most players on the Rams roster, so it'd be understandable for them to be a bit jumpy compared to the Patriots.
Second, the Rams are likely to get the ball first, as the Patriots seem to win every coin toss they participate in, and almost always choose to defer. Offensive penalties, either a holding or a false start, feel more likely than a pass interference early on in the game.
Finally, after the Rams got away with the no-call of the century in the NFC Championship, expect the officials to remind them early that they weren't going to get away with the crime twice.
The pick: Yes, either team scores in the first 6:30 ($150 to win $100)
The logic: Both of these teams can move down the field extremely fast, and both of these coaches are among the top game-planners in the league. With two weeks to prepare, whichever team winds up with the ball first should have their first 10 minutes of offense memorized down to the inch.
The pick: Yes, Tom Brady will throw an interception ($110 to win $100)
The logic: Brady threw two interceptions in the AFC Championships against the Chiefs, and now will have Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh breathing down his neck. One of these throws will get away from him.
The pick: Over 11.5 yards on Rob Gronkowski's first reception ($110 to win $100)
The logic: Rob Gronkowski was pretty silent all season, only to erupt for six catches and 79 yards in the AFC title game. I don't know how heavily the Patriots will lean on Gronk again, but he's the best target Brady has when facing a long third down. I don't think they'll waste him on a five-yard gain.
The pick: Over 44.5 gross yards on Ryan Allen's first punt ($60 to win $50)
The logic: Allen is a good punter that doesn't allow for many returns from opponents. There's nothing better than betting on a punter, and the Super Bowl is basically the only time you can do it. Throwing some money on Rams punter Johnny Hekker is a solid bet as well.
The pick: No, Stephen Gostkowski's first kickoff will not result in a touchback ($220 to win $100)
The logic: You have to lay a lot of money to win with this bet, but it might be the best lock on the board. Bill Belichick hates touchbacks, having enough faith in his coverage team to stop the returner before he reaches the 25-yard line.
Gostkowski consistently has one of the lowest touchback rates of any kicker in the league and has become an expert at landing his kicks just above the end zone to force a return. A touchback on his opening kickoff would be a huge failure.
The pick: Yes, the Rams convert their first 3rd down attempt ($100 to win $135)
The logic: Again, the Rams first drive will be planned out and executed to oblivion for days ahead of Super Bowl Sunday. I expect big things from Sean McVay's first third down call.
The pick: Over 3.5 yards on Todd Gurley's first rushing attempt ($100 to win $100)
The logic: Rushing gains are a crapshoot in the NFL, but after the tough game Gurley had in the AFC Championship, the Rams will likely have something drawn up to boost their lead back's confidence early.
The pick: Over 12.5 yards on Brandin Cooks' first reception ($110 to win $100)
The logic: Brandin Cooks is a hard man to cover going deep, and as a former Patriot, playing in what could serve as a revenge game. Look for the Rams to try a big play-action throw in his direction at some point in the first quarter.
The pick: No, the first touchdown of the game will not be a passing touchdown ($100 to win $130)
The logic: There are too many good running backs on these two teams for this bet to be positive odds. If either gets stopped near the goal line, there's a good chance they smash the ball home before they try anything too fancy. This bet also has you covered in case the first touchdown of the game comes off of a turnover, or special teams play. It's far from a lock, but there's value in the odds as listed.
The pick: Over 87.5 total yards for all touchdowns ($110 to win $100)
The logic: This is just a fun bet! If there are only three touchdowns in the game, you could still cash provided one of them is a huge play. And if this game winds up a shootout, it'll still be a weird one to track as the scoring continues. A good bet is one that makes the game more engaging, and putting a bit of money on this will give you a good reason to tune in until the final whistle.
The pick: Yes, there be a lead change in the fourth quarter ($100 to win $230)
The logic: With the wild two endings we had in the conference championship games, thinking this game is going to be settled in the fourth quarter feels like tempting fate. And with odds this good, this is a tough bet to turn down — it lets you root for a close game, regardless of the eventual winner.
The pick: Over 2.5 different players attempt a pass ($100 to win $110)
The logic: Again, this one feels like a lock. After losing the battle of the trick plays last year to Nick Foles, the Patriots might want to prove they still have some tricks up their sleeve with another pass attempt to Brady. Meanwhile, Rams punter Johnny Hekker is a fake punt savant and a tool that McVay loves to lean on when in need of a spark.
The best part about this bet? Brady doesn't even need to catch the pass to cash.
The pick: Over 25.5 completions for Brady ($110 to win $100)
The logic: In his two playoff games so far this year, Brady has posted totals of 34 and 30 completions. Whether the Patriots are winning big or are in desperate need of a comeback, they're not the type to switch up the game plan.
The pick: Yes, there will be a two-point attempt ($100 to win $145)
The logic: Again, with how wild this postseason has been so far, it's hard to imagine a Super Bowl that goes by the book. At some point, it's going to make more sense for one of these teams to go for two.
The pick: No, James White will not score a touchdown ($150 to win $100)
The logic: Betting negative props is a lot more stressful than betting positive ones. Like betting the over on a game, it's much more fun to root for something to happen, as opposed to praying all game that it doesn't.
Still, there can be great value found in negative bets, and in the Super Bowl, I'm going against James White to score a touchdown. The Patriots seemed to favor Rex Burkhead as their red zone running back in the AFC Championship, and Sony Michel in their standard rushing attack, leaving White to serve as a pass-catcher for short, but efficient gains. It's an important role in the New England offense, just not one that finds the end zone a ton.
The pick: Over 6.5 Patriots first-quarter points ($110 to win $100)
The logic: Since Week 10 of the regular season, the Patriots have scored at least seven points in the first quarter in seven of the eight games they've played. The one time they failed to reach seven, they scored six, with Gostkowski missing the extra point attempt.
Trust the trend.
The pick: Yes, the Patriots score in every quarter ($110 to win $100)
The logic: This is a bet I would typically go against, but again, the Patriots seem to buck the trend, having scored in every quarter of six of their past eight games.
The pick: Jersey number of the first player to score a touchdown Under 26.5 ($110 to win $100)
The logic: The under in this one gets you Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, and Jared Goff on the Rams, as well as Julian Edelman, Tom Brady, Phillip Dorsett, Chris Hogan, and Sony Michel on the Patriots.
I like the group.
The pick: Luka Doncic free throws made +1.5 ($110 to win $100)
The logic: Cross-sports props are the perfect time to add a bit of randomness to your bets. Woods has averaged about six receptions per game through the second half of the season, while Doncic can make anywhere between two and 10 free throws on a given night. Let's hope he feels like driving the lane a bit against the Cavaliers the day before the big game.
The pick: Joel Embiid +0.5 points ($110 to win $100)
The logic: As a Sixers fan, I will take any chance I can to bet on Joel Embiid. This opportunity is just a bit more interesting than most.
The pick: Zion Williamson points and rebounds -5.5 ($110 to win $100)
The logic: Over his past three games, Williamson has averaged 29 points and just over eight rebounds per game for the Blue Devils. The first half total for the Super Bowl is currently listed at 27.5. As long as Williamson plays up to his potential, this feels like a solid spot to take him.
The pick: Big East team points -29.5 ($110 to win $100)
The logic: A simply wacky bet. You get the sum of points scored by Georgetown, Villanova, Xavier, and Creighton on Super Bowl Sunday put up against Brady's passing yards, with the points scored listed as a 30-point favorite. Indeed a crapshoot, and undoubtedly fun.
The pick: Aaron Donald, 20/1, Sony Michel, 16/1 ($20 each to win $400 or $320)
The logic: The obvious bets here are the quarterbacks, but if you're looking for a bit of value in your MVP pick, Donald and Michel both present solid opportunities.
Two of the past five Super Bowl MVPs have been awarded to dominant defenders — a definition Donald certainly fits. Meanwhile, Michel has rushed for 242 yards and five touchdowns through two postseason games so far. Another big game and a mediocre effort from Brady and it's easy to imagine him getting the nod.
The pick: Brandin Cooks, 5/1 ($50 to win $250)
The logic: I think the Rams go for it all early with a big pass to Cooks, and I think he comes down with it. At 5/1 odds, I'm happy to make the bet.
The pick: Rex Burkhead, 8/1 ($50 to win $400)
The logic: Burkhead scored two touchdowns in the AFC title game and was a go-to player for the Patriots in the red zone. If New England gets stopped just short of the end zone on an early drive, 8/1 odds feel too good to pass up on the chance they give it to him again.
The pick: Chris Hogan, 15/1 ($20 to win $300)
The logic: Just a guess, but assuming that the Patriots defer the opening kickoff and get the ball after half, these odds feel solid.
The pick: Over 57 total points ($220 to win $200)
The logic: Totals have been going over all season. This game feels no different. Between the Patriots past two wild Super Bowls and this entire postseason being filled with drama, it just feels like points will be scored.
The pick: Los Angeles Rams +2.5 ($220 to win $200)
The logic: There's no way this happens. As much as I'd love to live in a world where the Patriots lose consecutive Super Bowls, that's not the reality we exist in. Still, with more than 80% of bets streaming in on the Patriots, this feels like the only play on the game worth making. Gambling is never this easy, right?
A premature congratulations to all Patriots bettors on your winnings, I wish I could have joined you, but I simply cannot.
The pick: Cleveland Browns, 30/1 ($20 to win $600)
The logic: While you're loading up on the Super Bowl, why not throw a bit of money down on next year's winner while the odds are good? Back Baker Mayfield and the Browns and you can thank me in 2020.
Best of luck!
https://www.businessinsider.com/super-bowl-prop-bets-2019-2019-1#more-super-bowl-coverage-32
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